Morgan Tsvangirai's Five Decision Points

It is hardly salutary for a leader that is known for indecisiveness to be caught in any uncomfortable situation that requires judgment.
 
Tichaona Zindoga
It must be worse for Morgan Richard Tsvangirai, leader of the opposition MDC-T, who now faces a five-way conundrum which will determine the fate of the outfit that currently is facing a second split under his watch.
How Tsvangirai will handle five critical decision points will define the course of politics in Zimbabwe and seal Tsvangirai’s place in the history of the country, for better or for worse.
Granted, since Independence in 1980, Tsvangirai has been the only politician that has managed to shake the political landscape that has been dominated by the liberation movement fronted by Zanu-PF and President Mugabe.
The formation of the MDC in 1999 provided excitement to a political culture that was beset by complacency and at some point even entertained the idea of a one-party state.
The MDC was supposed to be a worker’s party – and stayed true to the definition and ideology in the initial years, witness its support in urban areas, although there was a strong identification with the white farming community who provided the money, and Western ideologues.
In the intervening years, the MDC would shed off its worker base to become a melting pot of elements opposed to Zanu-PF, with Western interests becoming louder and louder while Tsvangirai fronted both Western and opposition interests.
The student movement, also under socio-economic stress, would look up to, and boost, the political muscle of Tsvangirai.
But the initial push failed in the period between 2000 and 2005.
Cracks began to emerge, resulting in the split of October 12, 2005.
Yet Tsvangirai retained the top seat and in 2008, aided by Western sanctions on Zimbabwe, the MDC leader had a taste of State power by securing a place in the inclusive Government.
It would prove a costly miss.
Five years later, in July 2013, his party dismally lost elections and the aftermath of the elections is set to test the character of both Tsvangirai and the opposition movement in Zimbabwe.
Infighting has again reared its head and Tsvangirai now stands at a crossroads: his next steps will shape the country’s politics forever depending on how he manoeuvres five questions.
Intra-party unity: The MDC-T house today resembles a Royal Rumble match more than it does a political party. For those unfamiliar with Royal Rumble, it is a wrestling TV show initially produced by the World Wrestling Federation, in which, according to one definition, a number of wrestlers aim at eliminating their competitors by tossing them over the top rope, with both feet touching the floor. The winner of the event is the last wrestler remaining in the ring after all others have been eliminated.
The wrestlers may form weak alliances but at the end of the day, all contrive to be the last man standing. MDC-T has all the ingredients of a Royal Rumble. Tsvangirai seeks by means fair and foul to be the last man standing. Will Tsvangirai pursue the Royal Rumble or will he call it to  halt?
Diplomacy: Tsvangirai is not his sexiest at the moment to his Western donors and diplomatic friends, from the British Embassy to George Soros. Lately, he has been castigating these forces for interfering in the affairs of his party. Will he cut the umbilical cord with the Western founders and funders? What kind of policies will he pursue afterwards? It is a make or break decision that he has to take.
Tsvangirai may choose to continue playing the puppet, under even more constraining conditions, or choose to break free and court a new politician that can brag about independence. Either way the stakes are high.
Funding: This is closely linked to the above. It would seem Tsvangirai, already suffering from dwindling resources, has been toying with the idea of finding alternatives to Western funding.
Tsvangirai's (hapless) panacea: his supporters could sell goats and chickens to fund MDC so it becomes more independent. The only problem with that is there will not be any legendary seas to be conquered. There won’t simply be enough.
Grassroots support: The idea that Tsvangirai has grassroots support has been such a comforting prospect for him. When factionalism began to shake the party, Tsvangirai resorted to seeking solace in captive crowds and party thugs in Harare to reassure him.
Such gangs have been denouncing Tsvangirai’s internal opponents like Mangoma, even mocking him for being disabled. Tsvangirai loves that. They will kill for him. However, far from the mad, rented crowds, Tsvangirai will need to ensure that he has the numbers.
Already, if the party splits, it means that Tsvangirai will have roughly a third of the party’s supporters. Such a trajectory, honed by Tsvangirai himself, does not seem to promise a fruitful future for him.
Strategy: Whatever the outcome of the present malaise, the future of opposition politics will depend on what strategies the main party will employ amid the ever diminishing returns. Biti tells us that MDC-T’s “change” message is tired. Perhaps so too are promises of some rich white friends coming to rescue us poor Zimbabwean folk. The Western friends, if they still are, are broke themselves. Whither opposition?